Demographic Trends in the 50-and-Older Work Force

Demographic Trends in the 50-and-Older Work Force

Ölümü Gösterip Sıtmaya Razı Etmek

20 Eylül 2013

Amerikan Merkez Bankası FED’in, parasal genişlemeyi yavaşlatacağı  yönünde yaptığı blöf öylesine inandırıcıydı ki, parasal genişlemeye devam kararı piyasalarda ‘’sürpriz’’ olarak karşılandı. Oysa Bernanke’nin  geçen Ekim ayında açıkladığı istihdam ve enflasyon çıpalarını değiştirmediği sürece genişleme politikasından vazgeçmeyeceğini hatırlayanlar için bu hiç de sürpriz bir karar olmadı. Küresel Görünüm Raporunun Haziran sayısında belirmiş olduğumuz gibi FED "…ABD tahvil piyasasını, algı yönetimi ile belirsizlik yaratarak yeniden canlandırmayı" amaçlıyor.

Parasal genişlemenin sonlandırılması ya da yavaşlatılmasının mevcut verilere göre mümkün olmamasına karşın..’’ FED aksi yönde beklenti yaratarak küresel risk iştahını bir nebze de olsa frenlemiş oldu. Böylece FED’in elindeki araçların tükendiğini düşünenler, psikolojik araçların varlığını görmezden gelerek bir kez daha yanılmış oldular. Yatırımcılara bundan sonrası için tavsiyemiz, FED’in belirlediği iki çıpa (işsizliğin % 6,5’in
altına inmesi ya da enflasyonun % 2’nin üzerine çıkması) hedefinden en az biri gerçekleşmediği ya da açıkça bu hedeflerden vazgeçildiği açıklanmadığı sürece önümüzdeki dönem için ortaya atılan yeni sıkılaştırma tarihlerine itibar etmemeleridir.

What Bernanke Realy Meant?

24 July 2013
Good news is bad news. When FED Chairman Ben Bernanke whispered loudly that the monetary easing may be coming to end, he actually meant that U.S. economy is recovering slowly and steadily. Therefore money printing would be tapered or even reversed within a year. Why this long waited good news has sent a panic waves across the markets and emerging economies faced with a dramatic fund withdrawals, leading a collapse in the stock exchanges, rising interest rates and falling exchange rates. Straightforward answer to this question is that it was a wake up call to so called “hot money”; Easy money will not be here for ever, so you better get prepared.
Hot money took the message seriously and headed to exits quickly. It was so quick quick that it caused stampede in some countries like Brazil and Turkey where vulnerabilities are relatively high. Just within a few days risk appetite got almost frozen leading sharp declines in emerging economies. So far, this story is well known to everyone but the rest of the story is a bit confusing. Why did Bernanke altered his speech during last week’s testimony before the Congress, and blurred his view of U.S. economy? Many answers may be given to this question which may be reasonable to many of you. Here is my explanation: When Bernanke implied a tapering of monetary easing, he did not mean that he removed two benchmarks – inflation rate and unemployment rate- as his “easy” monetary policy guidance .
As long as this two pillars remain in place, FED will not reverse its easing policy. So by playing with words he deliberately created uncertainty and screwed
high risk appetite to some extend. Second, As soon as he spotted that he spiked the bubble in high risk instruments he then softened his tone in tapering process. Will he succeed in his strategy of playing with expectations? Time will tell, but  as the following charts clearly indicate that every time the market players adjust to new policy set up, FED’s move will loose its effectiveness and we will be go back to square one.

Rising Interest Rate May Spell a Trouble

19 April 2013
During the course of post crisis period, central banks’ concerted monetary operations aided to camouflage the dismal backdrop of macroeconomic fundamentals in major economies. The enthusiastic sentiment in the short term money and equities markets encourages continued appetite for speculative actions among investors. It appears that central banks’ flooding the markets with massive amount of cash continues to help
elevating the equities markets across the globe.
Currently, low readings at TED spread , historically low level of fear and bullish formation at equity indexes indicate that unless there is a surprising news on the economic data, markets will continue upward movement for a foreseeable future.
In the previous  report, we issued a warning for the flight from bellwether 10 year U.S. Treasury bond market and rising interest rates. Fed chairman Bernanke’s speech at Capitol Hill that “QE to Infinity” will stay for quite some time eased the pressure on the rates somewhat. However, we will continue to keep an eye on watching bond market developments closely for the coming weeks. Because, resurgence of any upward
pressure on the interest rates will spell a trouble for the improving U.S. real estate market and the rest of the economy.
Another minor issue is the softness in the commodity markets. Weak demand in the industrial metals may be sniffing underlying weakness in the real economy. For the healthy improvement in the economy, commodity markets must confirm the rising equity markets. If deflationary metal prices are persistent, the improvement in sentiment may be short lived and even reversed. We must reiterate that, while the monetary authorities’ extraordinary intervention is at odds with the basic principles of macroeconomic theory, so far they were able to extend the “expiration date” of the bull market.